Forbes Column

August 17, 2021
Moving 5G Forward Requires Big Picture Thinking

By Bob O'Donnell

OK, I’m just going to say it. 5G isn’t really living up to what we’ve all expected from the technology.

Sure, we’re getting some great new phones, PCs, and other gadgets that leverage 5G, and all the major carriers are in the process of not only updating but also extending their network coverage, bringing critical, high-speed wireless services to more people. Behind the scenes, there is also impressive work being done by major network equipment suppliers, as well as innovative smaller companies, that are redefining how cellular networks can be designed, built, and managed through technologies like Open RAN.

However, when it comes to interesting applications that we can now actually credit to the use of 5G, well, the story isn’t quite so compelling. Yes, download speeds are getting faster in some areas, a few cities have access to 5G-based broadband, and in a few special locations, like sports stadiums, you might be able to find fun applications that do things like view the live action and replays from multiple different angles. When it comes to day-to-day impact, though, it’s safe to say that even the most ardent 5G fans don’t have a lot to cheer for.

Before falling into the trough of disillusionment, it’s important to remember that you must build a strong foundation if you want to enable a new world of opportunities. That’s particularly true when the technology in question derives its capabilities from a complex system built from hundreds of millions of interconnected pieces, as a cellular network does. Unexciting though it may be, that’s really where we are now when it comes to 5G. The hard work is being done within the walls of network operation centers, cellular base stations, and other related sites using equipment like virtualized CU (Centralized Unit)/DU (Distributed Unit) devices, massive MIMO radio and antenna systems, and more from companies like Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung Networks (see “Samsung Networks, Intel And Ericsson Driving 5G Network Transformation Efforts” for more).

We’re also on the cusp of the release of new RF spectrum, particularly C-Band (see “C-Band Auction Points To Dramatic Shift In 5G” for more), that will go a long way towards extending the 5G coverage map in the US. C-Band is part of a critical set of radio frequencies, sometimes referred to as “mid-band”, that offers noticeably wider data pipes than 4G, while also having the physical characteristics that allow the signals to travel over long distances. (Millimeter wave, or mmWave, signals have even broader connection channels for 5G data, but their coverage area is very limited.) T-Mobile has been using the mid-band frequencies it acquired from Sprint to jump ahead of the competition when it comes to fast 5G coverage, but both AT&T and Verizon have also announced big efforts to expand their use of mid-band for 5G (see “Verizon, T-Mobile And AT&T Lay Out Vision For Future Of 5G In US” for more). The net-net of all this, is that despite the apparent invisibility of the efforts, a great deal of work is ongoing to make the 5G foundation very strong.

In addition to all these things, I believe it’s time to refine our concepts of 5G. Specifically, I’d argue it’s no longer sufficient to think purely about the network aspect of the technology on its own. Instead, we need to consider the combination of 5G along with edge computing resources and the type of AI-processing that can occur at the edge as the “real 5G”. On their own, none of these elements can deliver on the promise of what this next generation network was supposed to offer. Only together can this triumvirate of 5G, edge computing, and AI bring about the changes we’ve been promised.

While some may be reluctant to essentially “demote” 5G to a component element of a larger solution, without that kind of shift in mindset, I believe 5G on its own will continue to disappoint. Faster speeds and even improved latency—two of the most touted benefits of 5G networks—simply aren’t enough on their own. To really achieve the kind of transformational impact and generational leap forward that those of us close to the technology know it’s capable of, we must consider the bigger picture of what 5G is and what it entails. In addition, we need to think a bit differently about the kinds of companies and technologies necessary to achieve this bigger vision.

Part of this relates back to what I mentioned earlier about how the design and operation of networks is being rethought as part of the 5G rollout. Truth be told, technological developments like virtualized RAN (radio access networks) and Open RAN don’t directly have anything to do with 5G, but the timing of this new network design approach is happening concurrently with the deployment of 5G networks. By combining these new network topologies with the signaling benefits of 5G NR and expanded RF spectrum, and then mixing in highly distributed computing resources, a vision of the hardware infrastructure required for this bigger picture view of 5G starts to come into focus.

In addition, at a software level, the world of cloud computing and many of the key principles associated with it are now being brought into the creation and operation of 5G networks. Things like containerized applications and dynamic resources that sit at the very heart of major cloud computing efforts are proving to be a perfect match for the needs of modern, computing-driven 5G networks. Toss in the growing use of AI for data analysis, both in the cloud and within the wireless network, and the story gets even stronger.

This coming together of these two technology bases is also reflected in a series of partnerships that have started to be announced between the major carriers and cloud providers. Not only are there expected deals such as offering access to the cloud providers’ edge computing platforms through certain carriers (e.g., AWS Outpost on Verizon, Microsoft Azure on AT&T, etc.), we’ve even started to see carriers like AT&T (to Microsoft) and Dish (to Amazon) discuss moving their existing network infrastructure to the cloud over the course of several years.

In the end, it seems apparent to me that every carrier will have to work out partnership deals with every cloud provider for access to their cloud platforms, because enterprises and other businesses will demand this level of flexibility. Hybrid cloud translates to hybrid network, meaning companies will want/need the flexibility of running new cloud-native applications across a combination of carrier networks. Though carriers may not be excited about the concept of sharing, it seems apparent from the rapid adoption of hybrid cloud in the cloud computing world, that a similar phenomenon will occur in the carrier world.

Even with these deals, it will still be critical to figure how and where the computing happens and how it gets managed. The reason every major tech company has been making investments in 5G technologies is because they see and understand the basic outlines of this overarching unification trend. However, the exact details of how it will play itself out remain to be seen. In fact, they’re arguably being formed and shaped as we speak, hence the recent rush of new partnerships.

On one level, this concept of tying together different cutting-edge technologies to achieve the real potential of 5G may, admittedly, seem a bit complicated and a bit excessive. However, all signs really do seem to be pointing to this grand unification of cloud computing, AI/ML, edge computing, virtualization, software-defined infrastructure and, of course, 5G radio networks into a single entity that can deliver on the vision that we were all promised many years ago. Execution on that vision will continue to be challenging and probably slower going than many would like, but I remain convinced that it’s this combination that can truly provide an impressively capable wireless technology future.

Disclosure: TECHnalysis Research is a tech industry market research and consulting firm and, like all companies in that field, works with many technology vendors as clients, some of whom may be listed in this article.

Here’s a link to the original column:  https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobodonnell/2021/08/17/moving-5g-forward-requires-big-picture-thinking/

Forbes columnist Bob O'Donnell is the president and chief analyst of TECHnalysis Research, a market research and consulting firm that provides strategic consulting and market research services to the technology industry and professional financial community.